{"id":116246,"date":"2018-07-09T11:20:17","date_gmt":"2018-07-09T10:20:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/?p=116246"},"modified":"2018-07-09T11:20:17","modified_gmt":"2018-07-09T10:20:17","slug":"can-theresa-may-survive-another-comms-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/blog\/can-theresa-may-survive-another-comms-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Theresa May survive another comms crisis?"},"content":{"rendered":"

David Davis has resigned from the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU). There is no denying this is a crisis for Theresa May, but is it a comms crisis that can be managed, or an irreparable rift in the Government?<\/strong><\/p>\n

At first look, the Government\u2019s lead negotiator resigning just months before a final agreement is due to be voted on by the EU seems like a catastrophe for May. Davis\u2019 resignation letter<\/a> explained \u2018the current trend of policy and tactics\u2019 was making it \u2018look less likely\u2019 that the UK would leave the customs union and single market.<\/p>\n

On Radio 4\u2019s Today programme, which we know is hugely popular among MPs<\/a>, Davis gave his first interview and said he did not believe the latest Brexit policy<\/a> agreed at Chequers on Friday was workable. He added: \u2018The best person to do this is someone who really believes in it, not me.\u2019<\/p>\n

Again, this looks terrible. But how much difference will it actually make?<\/p>\n

David Davis has spent just four hours in negotiations with Michel Barnier this year, that\u2019s less time than most people have spent with their kettles. In the background, civil servants have been working on the negotiations with their European counterparts but mostly there\u2019s very little to negotiate because the Government hadn\u2019t agree its position.<\/p>\n

On the first point, May can appoint a new Brexit Minister swiftly \u2013 which is what she\u2019s now done in the form of Brexiteer Dominic Raab \u2013 without any serious problems with continuity. Friday\u2019s agreement means there is also a new position from which to negotiate, so Raab won\u2019t really be caught up in legacy talks.<\/p>\n

The second comms win for May was Davis\u2019 timing. As he announced his resignation just before midnight, the front pages of today\u2019s newspapers were already decided and the majority now won\u2019t be able to cover the story in full until tomorrow. That means Raab has a chance to change the conversation. It also means that today\u2019s story of Davis\u2019 resignation is shaped by the (generally) less partisan broadcast media.<\/p>\n

Davis may have missed the papers deliberately, which would suggest a kindness towards May and her position. Or perhaps his timing shows how fragile the Government is. Davis said on the Today programme that he did not intend his resignation as a means to bring down May, as the optimum time for that would have been after the previous election. He also said a leadership contest would be the wrong thing to do.<\/p>\n

So, is Theresa May out of the woods?<\/p>\n

No. While she has done everything right from a comms perspective, which is not surprising considering her track record<\/a>, ultimately the Conservative party will decide her future. The 1922 Committee meets later today, and it is there it will be decided if May has had one crisis too many or if the Party can\u2019t afford the chaos of a leadership challenge and, potentially, another general election.<\/p>\n

Thanks to ComRes<\/a>, we now know where the Tories get their news, which means we know the sources that may help to influence the party members\u2019 decision on May\u2019s future. The Conservatives favour Sky News<\/a>, Guido Fawkes<\/a>, Andrew Neil<\/a>, Quentin Letts<\/a>, Matthew Parris<\/a>, Daniel Finkelstein<\/a> and Fraser Nelson<\/a>. Keep your eyes peeled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

David Davis has resigned. There is no denying this is a crisis for Theresa May, but is it a comms crisis that can be managed, or an irreparable rift in the Government? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":423,"featured_media":116247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7365,7272,7238],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116246"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/423"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116246"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116290,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116246\/revisions\/116290"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}