{"id":144821,"date":"2023-11-27T15:05:30","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T14:05:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/?p=144821"},"modified":"2023-11-27T15:05:30","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T14:05:30","slug":"jeremy-hunts-autumn-statement-for-growth-rhetoric-or-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/blog\/jeremy-hunts-autumn-statement-for-growth-rhetoric-or-reality\/","title":{"rendered":"Jeremy Hunt\u2019s Autumn Statement for growth: rhetoric or reality"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Wednesday 22 November, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt unveiled the Government\u2019s Autumn Statement<\/a> – just over a year after former Prime Minister, Liz Truss\u2019 mini budget caused an economic rupture in the UK\u2019s economy. In this sense, this statement represented a culmination of a year of politicking from the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in an effort to reassure the public. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The mission of calming the choppy waters has seen the return of David Cameron and the Autumn Statement has been an extension of this: the focus on \u2018economic responsibility\u2019 through welfare sanctions and scepticism on borrowing are self-evident staples of Conservatism. This was also complemented by a moral and practical argument for cutting personal taxes and supporting businesses and innovation.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the statement had missing pieces which made some question whether it really is the coherent economic plan for Government that is claimed, or is, instead, the start of the Conservative\u2019s re-election campaign.<\/p>\n

Two days prior to the Autumn Statement Sunak, proclaimed that now is the time to cut taxes. The previous day, Hunt had told Sunday with Laura Kuenssbergy that the Government could not rule out tax cuts, while also refusing to detail specifics. Both of these developments came after a year of the No.10 and HM Treasury press rooms briefing every week that tax cuts would only come once inflation had reduced – after all, Hunt had briefed this at the Conservative Party Conference. This key pledge to reduce inflation formed an important part of Sunak\u2019s five key priorities for 2023 – in essence, the start of the Conservative\u2019s mission of calming the waters.<\/p>\n

Sunak\u2019s speech on Monday reaffirmed this sentiment as he announced a further five missions. These were phrased specifically as long term with three out of five focusing on the UK\u2019s macroeconomic situation: reducing debt; cutting taxes and making work pay; and supporting British business. These missions were expanded upon in the Autumn Statement: a cut to NI contributions by 2%; a cut to NI contributions from self-employed; a \u2018responsible\u2019 approach to public spending; increasing benefit sanctions; making full expensing permanent; investments in manufacturing and the creation of four new regional investment zones.<\/p>\n

Throughout both Sunak\u2019s speech on Monday and Hunt\u2019s speech on Wednesday, the Government\u2019s alleged long term economic plan was emphasised. They both argued that Labour\u2019s strategy is its antithesis; clear dividing lines were set up between the Conservatives and Labour\u2019s supposed preference for regulation, borrowing, taxes, inflationary policies, trade unionism, and intervention.<\/p>\n

This approach perhaps raises wider questions for the Conservative\u2019s political strategy. It could elucidate Sunak\u2019s focus on the economy instead of \u2018culture wars\u2019 as he attempts to clear the blue water with Labour – that only under Conservative rule will your money be looked after. The very fact that the statement is titled an \u2018Autumn Statement for growth\u2019 is testament to this, also. This represents a clear attempt to battle over economic prudence and economic responsibility, just as the Conservatives centred its election strategy in 2010 and 2015. Maybe, then, Lord Cameron\u2019s return last week was not purely ceremonial.<\/p>\n

While the Conservative\u2019s Autumn Statement helped illuminate its priorities, by that very nature it also revealed what is potentially on the back foot for the Government.<\/p>\n

Despite Sunak and Hunt both focusing on the Conservatives\u2019 commitment to deliver a \u2018world class\u2019 education system, there were glaring voids in the concrete substance. A continued commitment to apprenticeships through a \u00a350m pilot scheme will do little to change the fact that the implementation of apprenticeship levy and T Levels has failed. Additionally, the absence of any additional support for childcare could mean that the Government\u2019s plans for 30 hours of free childcare may fall flat due to the significant concerns over the sector\u2019s ability to implement them without additional support. Just 3.9% of the UK\u2019s GDP is spent on education, compared to 5% in OECD. Therefore, perhaps just like the Advanced British Standard, the Government\u2019s vision for a \u2018world class\u2019 education system is still in the preliminary spin stage.<\/p>\n

In his address to Parliament, Hunt also commended the UK\u2019s Creative Industries for their important role in any growth strategy for the UK economy. However, the sentiment started and ended at warm words; a call for evidence on increasing Film and High End TV tax credit and funding increases to the British Film Institute and British Board of Film Classification may do little for a sector that has been impacted severely by austerity since 2010 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Perhaps the Government\u2019s vision for the creative industry perennially joins that \u2018world class\u2019 education system in the preliminary spin stage.<\/p>\n

Moreover, there were no commitments to additional public spending in public services in the Statement, with the Government funding its tax cuts by tightening spending. For instance, under the current spending set by this Autumn Statement, there will be real term spending decreases from 2024-25 to 2027-28: -0.7% in Local Government, -0.9% in Schools, -5.6% in the Courts and -6.7% in Prisons. Considering the sluggish growth of the economy and the huge problems faced by public services – RAAC in schools, bankrupt councils, court backlogs and a staffing crisis in prisons – this raises the question of whether more state spending is needed than the Government lets on.<\/p>\n

Finally, the Office for Budget Responsibilities\u2019 stagnant growth forecasts and reports that Hunt could fail to meet his debt reduction target could stipulate that the Autumn Statement represents a punch in the dark at Labour, ahead of a nearby election, rather than the long term economic strategy it purports to be. There could be a discrepancy between the rhetoric of the Autumn Statement and its reality.<\/p>\n

For regular updates on what is happening in UK politics and public affairs,\u00a0sign up to our weekly Point of Order newsletter<\/a>, going out every Friday morning.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On Wednesday 22 November, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt unveiled the Government\u2019s Autumn Statement – here is an overview of details included and what was missing. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":463,"featured_media":144826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7365,7383,7271],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144821"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/463"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=144821"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144821\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":145199,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144821\/revisions\/145199"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/144826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=144821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=144821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vuelio.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=144821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}